11 March 2009

The Recession in Context

Over at CalculatedRiskBlog.com, they've put up some handy charts comparing this recession to previous recessions. They use the common definition of "depression," which is a 10% decline in GDP. Right now, we're sitting at about 3.5%.

Also note that the "depression" that occurred post WW2 was considered a good thing (!) as it signaled the winding down of the war effort, and didn't last long enough (8 months, instead of a year or more). Thus, that "depression" is usually excluded.

This chart shows something pretty interesting. We haven't experienced a real, knock-down drag-out recession in about 25 years. Which means that most of the people currently living through this recession are susceptible to the "sky is falling" mentality currently displayed on television news and in Washington DC.

P-BO and his advisors are in their 40's, which means they were about 20 when the last recession hit. Just about the right time to be sitting in classrooms learning about how evil capitalists cause all the problems of the world.

No, this is a recession, not a crisis. P-BO will make it into a crisis, though, and we'll all end up paying for it for decades to come.

Lock in your mortgages now at a nice low rate. They're gonna go up in the future!

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